- China’s unexpected import increase is masking a major shift in buying behaviour
- Exporters must adapt to a future where China no longer absorbs excess shrimp supply
- The industry’s landscape is shifting from volume to value
On paper, China was a major bright spot for shrimp exporters, with imports increasing by approximately 22 per cent during the first half of 2026.
Elvis John, Senior Price Reporter for Agriculture and Food Pricing at S&P Global Energy Platts, described this as a “surprise”, considering the growth in China’s domestic production.
However, behind the rising figures is a more complex story.
“This year, it was a surprise that Chinese imports have gone up, but you can also see that the value of imports has gone down. This is the result of an oversupply in the market. Yes, China is absorbing volumes, that is true, but it is absorbing them at a lower value, which is a major concern,” said John, who was speaking at Seafood Expo Asia, held in Singapore from September 2 to 4.
While China remains the world’s largest shrimp buyer, its purchasing behaviour is changing, said John.
“Chinese demand is increasingly becoming more opportunistic rather than guaranteed. This is expected to continue.”
John said China remains important but is becoming a more price-sensitive and seasonal buyer.
With China “calling the shots”, it will continue to exert pressure on the prices unless issues crop up on the supply side, he said.
Market realities
While imports are expected to remain significant, China’s purchases will likely continue to be highly opportunistic and driven by market conditions.
China has been aggressively expanding domestic shrimp production and is forecast to produce roughly 2.5 million tonnes in 2026, making it the world’s largest producer.
Despite this growth, imports still increased by approximately 22 per cent during the first half of 2026.
John said this was because international shrimp prices were so low that imported shrimp remained an attractive option.
“Prices were down this year because of oversupply in countries such as India, so [China] has certainly used this scenario to its advantage.”
He stressed that future import demand will depend on the balance between domestic production costs and import costs.
Factors such as feed prices, disease outbreaks and weather conditions will influence Chinese production economics.
Ripple effects
While China will remain a big buyer, suppliers are simultaneously looking to diversify sales and develop alternative markets.
Ecuador, for example, has increasingly targeted the US market and invested in processing capabilities and new product forms, areas where it has traditionally been less competitive.
“There is a reason why Ecuador is currently investing more in the US market for certain product forms it was not focused on before,” said John.
With the changing export dynamics, two distinct business models are emerging in the shrimp sector, said John.
One is the traditional volume-based model, while the other focuses on value-added products.
The traditional model, focused on the large-volume production seen in Ecuador and India, is increasingly challenged by overcapacity, oversupply and rising production costs.
“In the long run we don’t see the old model as sustainable. At a time when we’re facing major upstream headwinds, especially rising production costs and higher feed prices, this model is unlikely to be sustainable,” said John.
On the other hand, countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia are increasingly targeting higher-value shrimp products rather than competing solely on volume.
John concluded: “Going forward, it won’t necessarily be the largest volume producers that succeed, but those that can better align with changing demand patterns and the fragmentation we’re seeing in the market.”
