- The next few years will show whether RAS can become commercially successful
- The technology has largely proven itself but profitability remains the biggest question
- The first profitable land-based projects could unlock further investment
Speaking on a panel at Seafood Expo Asia on September 2 in Singapore, executives from FRD Japan and Nordic Aqua (Ningbo) said RAS farming has proven technically viable but must now show that it can generate consistent profitability.
FRD Japan CEO Tez Sogo said the industry has entered a phase where the first commercially successful RAS projects are expected to emerge, potentially paving the way for larger facilities and broader adoption.
“I think RAS is a very difficult project to monetise. In the next five years, a couple of companies will be in positive cash flow and will make it happen. We are trying to be one of those companies,” he said.
Larger scale, lower costs
FRD Japan was founded in 2013 as a RAS technology provider before expanding into producing rainbow trout, which is marketed as salmon trout in Japan.
After operating an R&D farm in Chiba Prefecture since 2017, the company launched a commercial-scale facility and began operations in February.
According to Sogo, the company’s immediate challenge is achieving its production target of 3,500 tonnes, and it hopes to reach 10,000 tonnes by 2030.
“To minimise the production cost, we need to scale to above 10,000 tonnes in one facility. Once we do that, our production costs will be low enough to sell in the frozen market,” he said.
The market ‘supplement’
Nordic Aqua, which operates a land-based Atlantic salmon production facility in Ningbo, China, is currently producing at an annualised rate of 8,000 tonnes.
The company has already produced more than 14,000 tonnes of salmon and harvested nearly 6,000 tonnes, while maintaining mortality rates of around 6 per cent.
It is looking to expand further, which would add another 12,000 tonnes of production capacity, bringing the total to 20,000 tonnes.
The company has also begun selling its salmon in China, one of the world’s most attractive salmon markets and now the world’s second-largest Atlantic salmon market after the US.
Managing director Andreas Thorud said Nordic Aqua views itself as being in the right market at the right time, but said it sees itself as a “supplement” to existing supply.
Profits and personnel
Despite these achievements, Thorud echoed Sogo’s comments about the future of RAS.
“I think what’s been shown is that RAS is difficult but doable,” he said.
Thorud said what the industry needs now are examples that show investors RAS projects can generate sustainable returns.
This would likely attract fresh capital to the sector, helping drive further expansion.
He stressed that the sector requires more personnel with specialised RAS expertise, describing the technology as more knowledge-intensive than conventional salmon farming.
Moving forward, Thorud envisions RAS not as the sole production model for salmon, but as one that will evolve alongside emerging approaches such as hybrid and offshore farming systems.
He concluded: “There will be different approaches pursued, and some will succeed while others will not. What still needs to be established is a strong commercial example that proves the model works, has been tested and can be monetised. Has that been proven over time yet? No. Will it happen? I think so. If it does, the sector could have a very exciting future.”