- Australia’s malt barley exports to China could rise as beer consumption grows.
- A proposed regulation change could further boost demand for Australia.
- However, slower economic growth in Asia could temper the outlook.
In its September 2026 Agricultural Commodities and Australian Crop Report, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) highlighted the opportunities of beer consumption trends across Asia.
According to the report, beer volume sales in Asia have grown over the last two years, reflecting strong demand for Australian malt barley exports to the region.
ABARES highlighted that in the first quarter of 2026, Heineken licensed volume sales to Asia increased by 44 per cent. Carlsberg volumes increased by 3.4 per cent in the same period.
Beer demand has been especially strong in China, where China Resources Beer reported solid volume growth in 2025, driven in part by a 10 per cent increase in premium beer sales.
The robust demand for premium beers is particularly important, as this category is produced with higher malt content. Craft beer, for instance, uses up to four times the amount of malt compared to regular beer.
ABARES noted that sales were particularly strong across premium beers, and that growth in these sectors in China is supportive of increased malt barley imports.
Growth in these higher-malt categories is expected to support increased malt barley imports into China.
New ruling may boost demand
The outlook could receive a further boost from regulatory change.
In the second half of 2026, the China Alcoholic Drinks Association is reportedly introducing a new labelling rule which would require malt barley content to be over 50 per cent. This is expected to boost demand for malt used in regular beers.
“China is the most important market for Australian malt barley with, on average, 70 per cent of Australian exports destined for China with the remainder going to Japan, Vietnam and Mexico,” ABARES reported.
“Together, higher malt-content rules and increased premium beer consumption are supportive for continued strength in Australian malt barley exports to China.”
China remains the dominant destination for Australian malt barley and the country’s largest barley supplier.
ABARES said Australia accounts for about half of China’s barley imports, ahead of Canada at approximately 13 per cent.
The strong trade relationship leaves Australian exporters well positioned to benefit from any increase in demand for malt used in brewing.
Risks and challenges
However, the report also highlighted challenges that could temper this positive outlook and limit growth in malt barley demand.
Slower economic growth in China and ASEAN in 2026 and 2027 could moderate beer consumption growth.
China remains an important destination for Australian barley and sorghum as both grains are favoured by Chinese producers of beer and the Chinese liquor, baijiu.
However, for 2025-2027, Chinese barley consumption is forecast to fall by 14 per cent while sorghum consumption is forecast to remain stable.
Despite that decline, ABARES said barley and sorghum will remain important ingredients for China.
Australia’s overall outlook
ABARES is forecasting the value of agricultural production to fall by 5 per cent to AU$99.4bn (US$71bn) in 2026-27, or AU$105.6bn (US$75.4bn) including fisheries and forestry.
This forecast result is the second highest on record and follows Australia’s agricultural production value exceeding $100 billion in 2025-26, four years ahead of industry’s 2030 target.
“This latest forecast shows that despite challenging seasonal conditions and disruption from the war in the Middle East, which is impacting globally, our agricultural production value continues to remain strong,” said Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Julie Collins.
Agricultural export value is also expected to fall 5 per cent to A$76.3bn (US$54.5bn), or A$80.8bn (US$57.7bn) including fisheries and forestry.
ABARES Acting Executive Director David Galeano said that while the value of agricultural production was down from the record of AU$104.6bn (US$74.7bn) in 2025-26, there had been improvements to this year’s outlook over winter.
Total crop production value is forecast to fall by six per cent to AU$51.9bn (US$37bn) in 2026-27, reflecting an expected fall in winter crop production more than offsetting expected higher prices.
