- China’s aquaculture grows despite global fishmeal shortages.
- Domestic marine ingredient production helps offset weaker imports.
- Second-half production will shape the 2026 market outlook.
The weather phenomenon has significantly disrupted marine ingredient production in key producing countries, reducing the availability of fishmeal and fish oil on global markets.
“El Niño is currently having a significant impact on global marine ingredient production, primarily by reducing raw material availability in Peru and Chile. Lower raw material availability in South America, Northern Europe and some Asian countries accounts for much of the anticipated decline,” said the Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO).
Peru, which typically accounts for around 20 per cent of global fishmeal production, has seen its 2026 anchovy season significantly lowered, with only around one-quarter of the first-season quota harvested before fishing activity was suspended in June.
Meanwhile, Chile is also facing challenging conditions, with catches during the first part of 2026 remaining well below the previous year’s levels and a high incidence of juveniles further constraining fishing activity.
At the same time, Northern Europe has experienced lower raw material availability, although the decline was not related to El Niño, said IFFO.
China impacted by lower supply
The resulting supply constraints have weighed on China’s fishmeal imports and contributed to a further decline in domestic inventories.
However, the world’s largest aquaculture producer appears to be coping with the disruption so far.
According to IFFO, initial estimates indicate that domestic output of marine ingredients in the first half of 2026 exceeded the previous year’s level.
Domestic marine ingredients are expected to become increasingly important when seasonal fishing activity resumes in August and September.
At the same time, demand from the aquaculture sector has remained strong.
According to data from the China Feed Industry Association, aquafeed production reached 11.1 million metric tons in the first half of 2026, representing a 17.4 per cent year-on-year increase.
The increase supported a rise in domestic aquaculture output from approximately 29.9 million metric tons in the first half of 2025 to around 31.1 million metric tons during the same period this year.
Despite tighter global supplies, fishmeal use within China’s aquaculture sector has proven relatively resilient.
Fishmeal consumption in the first half of 2026 was estimated to have been slightly lower than a year earlier, suggesting producers have managed to maintain production levels despite reduced import availability.
Meanwhile, soybean meal prices have recently increased, while China Customs data showed soybean imports during the first six months of 2026 rose 1.5 per cent year on year. Corn prices, however, have remained broadly stable.
Outlook remains uncertain
The broader outlook for marine ingredients remains uncertain. El Niño conditions are expected to persist into early 2027, continuing to affect fishing activity in South America.
Chile has also reported lower catches and a high incidence of juvenile fish, further constraining raw material availability.
As a result, the global marine ingredients market will increasingly depend on second-half production in countries such as China, Morocco, India and Oman to offset losses elsewhere and stabilise supplies, said IFFO.
“The outlook for the full year will increasingly depend on production during the second half of 2026, when marine ingredient output typically strengthens in important producing countries such as Morocco, China, India and Oman.
“The performance of these regions will therefore play an important role in determining the extent to which lower production elsewhere can be offset and, ultimately, the overall global production outcome for 2026.”
