Food prices will have to rise as climate pressures hit global production, says former Defra secretary

Speaking to AgNavigator at the recent World Agri-Tech Innovation Summit in London, Eustice said the combination of extreme weather, increasing production risks and the need for greater on-farm investment means food prices are likely to trend upwards.

Climate pressures set to drive food inflation

Eustice argued that higher food prices are becoming an inevitable consequence of climate change and its impact on agricultural production.

“The more extreme weather events you see, the more crop failures you get,” he said.

He pointed to growing challenges in some of the Mediterranean countries that currently supply significant quantities of fresh produce to the UK.

“We will see parts of the world currently producing food that are going to struggle to produce food in the future,” he said.

According to Eustice, now managing director of the Penroath consultancy, declining production in key growing regions will ultimately trigger a market response.

“If you are therefore seeing stressed production, less production around the world, then ultimately food prices will start to rise just because of the simple laws of supply and demand.”

He added that farmers will also require stronger returns if they are to invest in the technologies and infrastructure needed to remain productive in a more volatile climate.

Questions remain over SPS alignment

Eustice said he was encouraged by assurances from UK farming minister Stephen Morgan, who earlier told the conference that the government intends to protect Britain’s ability to pursue agricultural innovation under a future sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) agreement with the EU.

However, Eustice warned that a UK-EU SPS agreement could still undermine the regulatory freedom that has given the UK an advantage in gene editing.

Britain’s risk-based approach allows many gene-edited crops to reach the market more quickly than in the EU, where regulation remains more centralised and complex.

“The key line that I took out of it really was him saying that although they’re in discussions on an SPS agreement, research and development on things like gene editing and other sectors will remain a UK competence and I think that’s important reassurance,” he said.

“I think the big question is whether then we see that approach apply equally to the cultivation of gene-edited crops and that’s the really important thing we need to retain.”

He praised the UK’s post-Brexit approach to gene editing. “I think what we did on gene editing was really quite groundbreaking,” he said. “I hope that what will happen now is that the European Union will see that their own system isn’t right and reform it along the lines of the UK’s.”

Agtech SMEs heading overseas

Eustice also warned that lengthy approval processes are pushing agricultural technology companies to pursue opportunities outside Europe.

He said start-ups developing products such as biopesticides can face regulatory timelines stretching to a decade or more.

“They’re looking at maybe 10 or 12 years of authorisations,” he said.

Faced with those delays, many companies choose markets where they can commercialise technology more quickly.

“They then have to make a decision to go to a market where they can get quicker, easier access,” Eustice said. “And that means usually South America or the US.”

Give member states more freedom on gene editing

Eustice also urged the EU to allow member states greater discretion over technologies such as gene-edited crops, biostimulants and fertilisers.

Rather than pursuing a single regulatory approach across all member states, Eustice believes Brussels should allow countries that wish to embrace new technologies to do so.

“If this is too difficult for us to get a sensible consensus on, then open the door to national decision-making in these areas,” he said.