- Philippine Q3 palay production fell 18%
- High input costs and reduced harvested area helped drive the decline
- El Niño’s more significant effects are expected in early 2027.
According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, third-quarter palay output reached 3.08 million metric tonnes, down from 3.75 million metric tonnes in the same period last year.
This decline was largely expected, said DA Undersecretary Christopher Morales, who oversees the Rice Industry Development Program.
“We anticipated the decline in third-quarter production, mainly because of the reduction in harvested area. High fertiliser and fuel costs affected farmers’ investment in inputs and, in some cases, their planting decisions,” said Morales.
Based on current estimates, full year palay production in 2026 could be around 1 million MT lower than last year’s.
Morales added that the decline was not entirely El Niño-related.
Other factors also shaped farmers’ decisions and cropping schedules, including delayed planting, irrigation constraints, reluctance to take risks amid high costs and uncertain returns, and weather disturbances such as heavy rains linked to the southwest monsoon.
El Niño test lies ahead
While the DA continues to address these immediate production challenges, it also has its eye on El Niño, as it expects its more significant effects in the first half of 2027, during the dry-season cropping period.
The DA said the extent of El Niño’s impact will depend on the severity and duration of dry conditions, water availability and how effective timely interventions prove to be. In other words, the scale of the risk is not yet known.
To prepare, the department is working to improve water availability, promote climate-resilient rice varieties, enhance farm monitoring and help farmers adjust planting schedules to local weather and water conditions.
The government is also seeking additional resources, including measures to help farmers manage production costs and sustain productivity.
The National Food Authority’s palay procurement programme has meanwhile given farmers an alternative market for their harvests, Morales said, supporting incomes and encouraging continued production.
In 1997-98, palay production plunged by about 1.9 million metric tonnes from the previous year.
Since then, the country has expanded irrigation, developed improved rice varieties, strengthened weather monitoring, and refined crop calendars to help farmers adjust planting schedules and better manage drought conditions.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. said the country was now better equipped to manage prolonged dry spells, with advances in agricultural technology and more responsive interventions to help farmers cope with climate-related risks.
“We have more tools now to mitigate the impact,” he said.
