After the closing bell on Nov. 4, hydrogen and nitrogen producer CF Industries released results for its third quarter (Q3) 2026, ending Sept. 30, reporting ongoing fertilizer supply chain challenges stemming from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, while strong nitrogen demand and tight global supplies helped boost net sales and margins in the quarter.
After slowing in Q2 2026, nitrogen purchases rebounded in Q3 2026 in the Americas, Europe, and India, boosted by higher corn and wheat prices, despite low channel inventory, CF Industries shared in the nitrogen market outlook section of its earnings statement. Additionally, South America and Southeast Asia nitrogen imports are below average at this point in the year.
Since the start of the Iran war, urea exports have been cut roughly in half from the Middle East. Urea supplies are expected to remain below pre-conflict levels due to the ongoing conflict, Strait of Hormuz complications, and the lag in getting production online.
Additionally, the Russia-Ukraine war poses a risk to nitrogen facilities in Russia, while traffic out of the Black Sea is constrained.
Elsewhere, more than a third (37%) of Europe’s ammonia capacity was either offline or running at reduced capacity in October due to constrained natural gas availability and higher prices, CF Industries reported. Trinidad is also permanently shutting down 35% of its ammonia capacity.
CF Industries projects that India will import more than 10 million metric tons of urea this year, while China is expecting to export 2-4 million metric tons of urea more than last year. However, China is expected to control nitrogen exports in an effort to boost food security.
High global demand and tight supplies pushed nitrogen prices higher during the third quarter, and CF Industries expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to tighten long term. Construction of new nitrogen plants is not expected to come online quickly enough to meet growing demand, and geopolitical factors are prolonging the construction of new facilities.
Given these market pressures, CF Industries “expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to remain constructive for producers operating in low-cost and low-risk North America in the near- and longer-terms,” the company shared in the earnings release.
CF Industries’ Q3 by the numbers
High nitrogen demand and tight supplies buoyed CF Industries financial results in Q3, with sales and gross margins improving despite an uptick in costs of goods sold.
CF Industries generated $1.860 billion net sales and reported $720 million in gross margin for the third quarter. This is compared to $1.659 billion in net sales and $632 million for the same quarter last year.
Year-to-date, CF Industries reported $6.068 billion in net sales and $2.611 billion in gross margin for the nine months of 2026. This is compared to $5.212 billion in net sales and $1.959 billion for the first nine months in 2025.
For the first nine months of 2026, CF Industries produced an estimated 7.2 million tons of ammonia while operating at a 97% utilization rate. The company is expecting to produce approximately 9.5 million tons of ammonia by the end of the year.
“The CF Industries team executed exceptionally well in the third quarter of 2026, delivering strong safety performance while operating our network at high rates to meet substantial deferred customer demand. Our low-cost and low-risk North American asset base, tangible growth platform and industry-leading free cash flow conversion position CF Industries well to continue to create compounding value by investing in high-return initiatives and returning capital to shareholders,” said Chris Bohn, president and CEO of CF Industries.
