Whether on top of a salad, rolled into a California sushi roll, or blended with lime juice, cilantro and chili peppers, avocados have become a staple in the U.S. However, the availability of the popular fruit was called into question, following a pause in government inspections in the major avocado-producing Mexican state of Michoacán in early August.
On Aug. 5, the U.S. government issued a statement that activities in the state of Michoacán were halted, including the inspection of agricultural goods coming into the U.S., “due to a threat against American interests,” as shared in a statement. Government inspections are a key step in importing agricultural goods.
The day prior, a packinghouse inspection in Mexico detected a suspected regulated pest, which was believed to be the avocado branch borer (macrocopturus aguacatae) larva — a major pest problem for avocado growers — according to the California Avocado Commission.
The Mexican government responded to safety concerns by moving 1,500 troops into Michoacán, where cartels routinely extort farmers. Then on Aug. 7, the U.S. Embassy to Mexico announced that it will resume partial activities in Tacámbaro, Tancítaro, and Uruapan, and the area between Morelia and Pátzcuaro on Aug. 8.
The California Avocado Commission supported the government’s initial move to halt activities in Michoacán because of biosecurity and security concerns, including cartel activity in the state.
Additionally, the California Avocado Commission is advocating for a seasonal tariff-rate quota to support domestic production, the organization shared in a press release.
“A tariff-rate quota is not a ban on Mexican avocados. Under our proposal, a defined volume would continue entering the U.S. at a zero-tariff rate during California’s March-through-September season, with only volumes above that threshold facing a significant tariff rate. The goal is to prevent extraordinary import surges from overwhelming the market while maintaining ample supply for consumers,” California Avocado Commission President, Ken Melban, told AgNavigator.
Is the U.S. too reliant on avocado imports?
The move to halt and partially resume inspections comes amid high demand for the fruit. The U.S. relies on the Latin American country for nearly 80% of its supply.
The U.S. must maintain a strong domestic avocado industry to meet long-term demand and support growers’ livelihoods, Melban said.
“Historically, U.S. avocado consumption grew significantly as Mexican imports expanded, but today’s market is very different. Avocados have become a mainstream staple with strong, established demand. We don’t believe unlimited import growth at any price is necessary to sustain that demand. In fact, Mexican exports to the U.S. surged 35% in the first four months of 2026, putting significant pressure on California growers during our harvest,” Melban elaborated.
He added, “If California growers are driven out of production, the U.S. becomes even more dependent on a single foreign source. Given the security and inspection disruptions we’ve already seen in Michoacán, preserving domestic production is not just a grower issue — it’s part of maintaining a diverse, reliable U.S. avocado supply.”
‘Any above-quota tariff would largely land on U.S. consumers’
However, not everyone agrees that tariff-rate quotas would be what’s best for the supply chain, U.S. commodity buyers, and ultimately consumers.
“The structural math is hard to get around: Mexico produces around 2.8 million metric tons (MT) a year — roughly a quarter of global output - versus under 200,000 MT for the entire U.S. California cannot backfill Michoacán volume at current U.S. consumption levels,” João Pedro Rodrigues Morciani, senior agricultural analyst at Helios AI, told AgNavigator.
He added, “A seasonal quota during the March–September window would firm grower returns in California, but the incidence of any above-quota tariff would largely land on U.S. consumers during exactly the months the quota bites — and it would add a second layer of price risk on top of the climate volatility we’re already tracking in Michoacán.”
Responsible for roughly 73% of Mexico’s production of avocados, Michoacán is also experiencing drought-stress and running at “about 125% of the sustained intensity of the 2024 drought that disrupted flowering,” Rodrigues Morciani explained.
Given these conditions, Helios AI moved Mexican avocado as a crop to “watch” from “all good” on Aug. 2. The AI commodity company was already expecting Mexican Hass wholesale prices to be up 8% and 14% over the next three months, before the pause in U.S. inspections.
Editor’s note: AgNavigator reached out to the Association of Avocado Producers and Packers-Exporters of Mexico for comment on the story but did not receive a response ahead of publishing.
