- China remains the main driver of regional fishmeal demand, but its market is increasingly segmented by species and characterized by tighter procurement and risk management, leading to stable but more precise usage.
- India’s fishmeal export relationship with China has evolved from opportunistic to long-term and stable, supporting consistent trade flows.
- Vietnam’s rapid aquaculture growth is driving strong demand for high-quality aquafeed, but local fishmeal production is hampered by raw material shortages, seasonality, and inconsistent input quality.
Asia’s marine ingredients market is undergoing a structural shift, industry experts said at the IFFO China Summit in Shanghai on 10 and 11 June.
China: ‘Demand is not unlimited’
China continues to anchor regional demand but is becoming an increasingly complex market for fishmeal.
Domestic raw material availability is tight, leading to reduced local fishmeal production in 2025 and a widening gap that imports must fill, said Zhaogang Jiang, President of Evergreen International Trade.
“China isn’t a single market, but rather dozens of segmented markets. Eel is one market, shrimp is another, and California bass is yet another. Their fishmeal demand behaviours are completely different. Feed companies, caught in the middle, should find a new balance between supply security and cost control,” he said.
While overall demand for fishmeal remains strong, it is no longer characterised by unbridled growth.
Chinese feed mills have tightened procurement and risk management, allowing them to use fishmeal more precisely, resulting in stable overall fishmeal demand but lower use per unit of feed.
“The fishmeal demand in China is real, but it is not unlimited and these limits of demand are becoming visible. The pace of response for the local supply will define the real picture of 2026,” said Jiang.
India: Rising exporter
Against this backdrop, India is emerging as a reliable and strategic supplier within Asia’s marine ingredients trade.
Total fish production, including aquaculture, has climbed to nearly 17 million tons, placing India among the world’s top three fish producers.
This was underpinned by a steady recovery in wildcaught marine fish, which has stabilised at 3.57 million tons in 2025.
Regulatory changes have further strengthened India’s export position.
The lifting of long-standing restrictions on new fishmeal and fish oil plants has opened the door to capacity expansion, allowing processors to respond more effectively to regional demand.
“The relationship with China moved from an opportunistic short-term rapport to a solid long-standing partnership, adding a stable flow of fishmeal into the biggest market in the world” said Joseph John, CEO of Arbee Biomarine Extracts.
On the supply side, pelagic finfish continue to dominate India’s catch composition, but the industry is increasingly turning to seafood processing trimmings as a secondary raw material source.
By-products from sardines, mackerel, tuna and other species are playing a growing role in fishmeal and fish oil production, improving utilisation rates and supporting sustainability objectives.
With monsoon forecasts expected to be normal to above normal and fishery improvement projects expanding across several coastal states, John expressed optimism for the year ahead.
Vietnam: Cooperation remains key
Vietnam, meanwhile, sits on the demand side of the regional equation, with strong aquaculture growth exposing persistent supply constraints.
Ngo Nha Truc, deputy manager of the feed and grain department at Kanematsu Vietnam, said rising production of shrimp, pangasius and marine fish has driven demand for high-quality aquafeed,
According to Ngo, aquafeed now accounts for around 5 per cent of the country’s total feed output.
However, she noted that domestic supply remained under pressure.
With raw material shortages, seasonality and inconsistent input quality, fishmeal production is only operating at 60 to 70 per cent capacity.
At the same time, the use of by-products has increased significantly and now accounts for an estimated 40 to 60 per cent of raw material supply.
However, this has not been sufficient to close the gap.
As a result, Vietnam remains heavily dependent on imported marine ingredients.
“Despite the significant domestic production of marine ingredients, Vietnam remains heavily dependent on imported marine ingredients for premium aquafeed production,” said Ngo.
This reliance links the country closely to regional supply dynamics, particularly with China, which is both a neighbouring aquaculture powerhouse and a key participant in supply chains.
She concluded: “Stronger cooperation between Vietnam and China in sourcing, quality standards, and by-product utilisation will therefore be important for long-term supply resilience.”
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