- New Zealand is emerging as a critical supplier in global beef markets as traditional exporters like the US, Australia, and South America reduce output due to herd rebuilding.
- Beef supplies are expected to tighten globally over the next few years, leading to potential shortages and higher prices.
- Global prices for beef and lamb are at or near record highs, with strong price levels likely to persist in the short to medium term.
Speaking at the Out the Gate event in Christchurch on 20 May, Global Agritrends analyst Simon Quilty said supply conditions are tightening across major producing regions, including the United States, Australia, and South America.
These regions are simultaneously entering or already undergoing herd-rebuilding phases, which naturally limit production in the short to medium term, he explained.
“We’re going to see beef supplies tighten in a unique way over the next couple of years, with all major supply countries moving into a rebuilding programme for their herds or having already started. This will see beef shortages across the globe,” said Quilty.
With global supply under pressure, New Zealand is in a strong position to step in and fill gaps in key markets, particularly in the US.
“New Zealand is backfilling the backfiller,” said Quilty.
Not only does New Zealand beef play a critical role in US supply chains, it also has a reputation as a high-quality product.
Global trends for protein
The demand for red meat is expanding across major global markets, with particularly strong momentum in the US.
He highlighted that protein consumption is becoming increasingly central to everyday diets, a long-term trend being driven by both younger and older consumers.
Notably, the widespread adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is also driving up demand for protein.
Quilty estimated that around 45 million people in the United States are currently using these drugs, with that figure expected to rise to around 90 million over the next three years. Similar adoption patterns are expected across other developed markets.
“The growing use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs has seen a focus on protein by users, who see meat as an integral part of the programme.”
An optimistic outlook
Global prices for both lamb and beef are currently at or near record levels.
Given the current situation, Quilty projected that price strength was likely to continue in the short to medium term.
While markets will always fluctuate, he said the underlying conditions point to continued support for returns in the short to medium term.
Additionally, changes in market access, competitive positioning, and supply availability across key regions are opening up space for New Zealand to expand its presence.
In certain markets, reduced competition from other exporting countries is improving access and enabling New Zealand producers to capture greater value.
“It all points to a really promising outlook,” Quilty said.
‘An economic powerhouse’
According to new research by Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ) and the Meat Industry Association, the sector generates nearly NZD $48.7bn (USD 28.4bn) in annual spending across the New Zealand economy.
“This research confirms the red meat sector is an economic powerhouse for New Zealand, making a vital contribution to jobs, communities and the wider economy well beyond the farm gate,” said B+LNZ Chair Kate Acland.
“On average, our farmers and processors spend NZD $64m (USD 37.3m) a day in communities and industries across New Zealand.
“When indirect impacts are included, that rises to NZD $133m (USD 77.5m) a day flowing through the New Zealand economy. That spending supports thousands of businesses and the jobs they provide and helps underpin the tax revenue and economic stability that benefits the whole country. This is something farmers and red meat exporters can be very proud of.”
