Regenerative agriculture has long been touted as a solution to climate risk, but until now, much of the supporting evidence has been limited to small-scale studies or modelling. That may be starting to change.
Soil Capital has unveiled early findings from what it describes as a first-of-its-kind European dataset, analysing independently verified, field-level data from 1,262 farms across 331,600 hectares in France – an area more than twice the size of Greater London.
The dataset, built through the company’s regenerative farming transition programme, combines detailed information on farming practices, yields and soil conditions, providing a level of scale and granularity not previously available.
Three times less yield loss
The headline finding is striking.
In areas most affected by the 2023 droughts, yields for the main crop fell by 22% on the least regenerative farms, compared with just 8% on the most regenerative farms.
In effect, farms with more advanced regenerative practices saw around three times less yield loss.
Across the wider dataset, the trend holds. Among cereal crops, 82 of France’s 96 regions experienced significant drought, and regenerative practices reduced drought-related yield losses by at least 10% in around 85% of cases. The results remain statistically significant even after controlling for variables such as soil type.
Resilience as a financial metric
For Soil Capital, the findings mark a shift in how regenerative agriculture can be understood – moving beyond sustainability narratives to quantifiable economic value.
“For the first time, we are moving beyond anecdote or modelling to show, through large-scale independently verified field data, how regenerative agriculture can help protect production,” said Andrew Voysey, chief impact officer at Soil Capital.
“That begins to move resilience from a high-level concept towards something that can be understood and managed as a financial risk factor.”
Voysey added that the results suggest regenerative practices could “materially reduce the yield and profit impacts of climate stress events such as drought.”
A new class of agricultural data
The dataset itself is drawing interest from the academic community.
Professor Erik Mathijs, head of agricultural, food and resource economics at KU Leuven – Soil Capital’s first academic partner – said the industry has long lacked robust empirical data at scale.
“There has long been academic interest in how different farming practices can moderate the damaging effects of climate stress on farm output,” he said.
“But what has held us all back is the lack of robust field-level data across large geographies and multiple successive years. Soil Capital’s dataset is unusually strong in this regard.”
Mathijs said the collaboration would aim to translate these insights into more rigorous economic modelling and decision-making tools.
From insight to supply chain strategy
Soil Capital is now looking to convert these findings into decision-useful metrics for agrifood companies, particularly around sourcing, pricing and risk management.
That push comes as industry pressure mounts to scale regenerative agriculture across supply chains.
Last month, 40 global food and agriculture companies, including Carlsberg, Diageo, FrieslandCampina and Mondelez, signed a joint declaration to accelerate adoption – but questions remain over who will fund the transition.
The financing challenge
Soil Capital’s model offers one emerging answer.
Rather than relying on subsidies, the company pays farmers through a results-based carbon payment system. Farmers implement regenerative practices – such as cover cropping and reduced tillage – and their environmental performance is measured annually.
Verified improvements in emissions reductions and soil carbon are then converted into carbon credits, which are sold to corporates seeking to cut Scope 3 emissions. The resulting revenue is shared with farmers.
This creates an ongoing, performance-linked income stream, effectively rewarding farmers for delivering measurable ecosystem services while helping to de-risk the transition to regenerative practices.
What comes next
While the findings are still preliminary, they point to a potential breakthrough moment for regenerative agriculture – where claims of resilience begin to be backed by large-scale, real-world data.
Further analysis with industry and academic partners is ongoing, with additional results expected in the coming months.
If replicated at scale, the implications could extend beyond agronomy into the core economics of farming – reshaping how climate risk, productivity and sustainability are priced into the global food system.
